A tale of two teams
When the Red Wings take to the ice, Steve Yzerman flips a coin.
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Every time I think I understand this team, I’m quickly humbled.
The Red Wings looked legit the first week of the season. They were aggressive, creative, and ready to wage war no matter the score. Now that we’re a quarter of a way through the season, I’m not exactly sure what to think. There are nights where the Wings look like the best team in the league and there are nights where they look like they couldn’t stop an AHL team.
Which version of the Wings is legit? Are we on Fraud Watch?
I decided to investigate:
The offense is going streaking
There was a time about a decade ago where Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist were two of the most exciting players in Hockeytown. They’d go on these crazy scoring tears for 2-3 weeks at a time before disappearing in bunches. That sort of wishy washy scoring is a microcosm of the 2025-26 Wings thus far. During the first four games of the season, the team scored 11 goals. In their last four, they scored just four goals.
Part of this can be chalked up to bad luck. After all, the team has the second-worst PDO percentage in the league. (For the non-nerd types, this means their shot and save percentages are unnaturally low, so positive regression is inevitable). But another part has to do with confidence. The Wings get jumpy and anxious when they’re down a goal. Take a look at this sequence where Kane almost scores a goal:
It isn’t just that Jonathan Quick robbed Patrick Kane of a goal. Every second of play that follows is agonizing. Kane fires a wide pass to DeBrincat. DeBrincat sends one to Chiarot (who nearly loses it). Sandin-Pellikka sends it back to Kane, who fires it directly into Quick’s pads. It’s one sequence, sure, but it represents an anxiety that’s quickly become prevalent among the Wings in the offensive zone.
Last season, head coach Todd McLellan said the biggest thing holding the team back was their inability to “play f---ing hockey”. There have been several instances throughout the season where even that appears difficult for the team. The lack of goal-scoring is leading to the lack in confidence, which, in turn, affects the team’s lack of goal-scoring. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Depth spells doom
The top-six, despite Marco Kasper’s cold streak and Alex DeBrincat’s goal drought, looks to be in a good place once luck returns to their side. When you take a closer look at the bottom-six, however, questions begin to arise. Michael Rasmussen has just three points in 14 games and some of the worst advanced analytics in the league:
But the buck doesn’t stop with Rasmussen. J.T. Compher and Jonatan Berggren leave a lot to be desired analytically as well. Part of is due in part to the constant line shuffling. The Compher-Copp experiment has proven to be detrimental for both parties. Compher takes a hit offensively, while Copp is forced to punch above his weight defensively.
The two bright spots among the bottom-six, however, are the newcomers. Mason Appleton has been a steady contributor on both ends of the ice, while James van Riemsdyk is among the 90th percentile of offensive contributors in the NHL. While JVR has just two points so far, it’s important to note that he plays anywhere from nine to 14 minutes a night on the team’s bottom line. To expect a 36-year-old who scored just 36 points last season to be a top contributor is asking a lot.
Sidebar: An interesting tidbit
The Wings called up Nate Danielson before Sunday’s humiliation ritual against the Chicago Blackhawks. When asked about it, McLellan had this to say:
“We wanted to see him now, so we could make some decisions perhaps on some other players.” - Todd McLellan, Red Wings press conference
Who (and what) he is referring to is anyone’s guess. But, if we’re meant to take what McLellan says as gospel, it sounds to me like there’s an odd man out. Danielson was deployed as the team’s third-line center with Kasper moving to the 3LW and Compher to the 2C. This, to me, feels like an audition as a bottom-six center. If I had to guess, I’d say Danielson might be auditioning for Rasmussen’s job.
We’ll see if Steve Yzerman makes any moves, though.
Why are you even here
First and foremost, I owe all my Senators friends an apology: you were right. Travis Hamonic is a mess. Fun fact: The Red Wings are 1-4-0 in their last five outings with him in the lineup. This has come at the detriment of Jacob Bernard-Docker, who the team has repeatedly scratched in favor of Hamonic. Last season, Hamonic was in the third percentile of defensive ability. That means 97% of all skaters that took to the ice were better defensively than Hamonic.
I’ll repeat that: McLellan trusts a guy who was beaten out by 97% of the NHL’s skaters over JBD.
Why this is the case is anyone’s guess. Based on the 313 Hockey Eye Test (3HET), JBD has looked substantially better than Hamonic. Even if McLellan doesn’t trust JBD, it isn’t like Hamonic would be a substantial upgrade. At that point, call up Erik Gustafsson. He’s shown he’s relatively decent at defense. Even if he’s a low-event, low-scoring defenseman, wouldn’t you prefer that over the physical defender who is constantly caught out of position?
I don’t get it. I really don’t.
At least the centennial stuff is cool
If there’s one thing we can universally agree upon, though, it’s that the centennial jerseys are brilliant. While, yes, they’ve only won one game wearing them, the striking contrast of red and off-white with the leather gloves stands out every game. Every game on the Hockeytown Eras Tour has featured clips of dynasties of Detroit’s past, from the Production Line to the Russian Five.
Our friends at Upper Deck have compiled two Centennial Sets to commemorate Detroit’s century of dominance. The first set, a 100-card retail set, features everyone from Nick Lidstrom to Dan Cleary. (Here’s a list of the potential cards you could wind up with!)
The second set’s the one that really caught my attention, though. This one is a hobbyist’s set that comes in a beautiful steel tin:
The hobbyist’s set releases in December and comes packed with over 135 cards. Each set is guaranteed at least two autographed cards as well as a series of special cards chock with references (my personal favorite being the Everybody in the 313 series). Some of the cards contain fabric from jerseys, pieces of plastic from the old Joe Louis seats, and even wood from iconic players’ sticks!
I’ll be posting videos soon unpacking the boxes, but here’s a sneak preview of what some of the cards look like!
Conclusion: It’s still early, but…
While, yes, we’re only a fifth of the way through the season, there are some major questions that need to be answered before we can truly get a grip on this team’s identity. Who knows? This recent skid could be just a blip on the map rather than a sign of something more concerning. The optimist in me believes this season is Different. The cynic in me expects the rookies to inevitably get sent down to Grand Rapids so we can experience Justin Holl once again.
What do you think about the team so far?