Detroit needs depth
If the Red Wings want to contend, they need some extra scoring
Do you like propaganda? If so, you’ll love what I’m about to share with you.
The Detroit Red Wings are currently second in the Atlantic division. They’re tied for most wins in the Eastern Conference with 30 and this is the fastest they’ve gotten to this point since 2011-12. They have the sixth best power play in the NHL and the fifth highest high danger shot chance in the league.
So what’s with the title? Why isn’t this just a puff piece on how far the Wings have come?
Well, unfortunately, the elephant is back again. This time he’s got some serious questions about Detroit’s depth.
The Wings need depth.
graphic
Wait, what?
“But Jake,” you may ask, “why are you so worried about depth? The team is at the top of the division and they have two guys scoring over a point per game!”. Maybe it’s my anxiety speaking, but I’m getting increasingly worried about even strength scoring. The Wings are 23rd in 5v5 goals this season with 90. Over a third of their 157 goals this season come from the power play or shorthanded. This is, for lack of a better term, a problem.
The Wings are, for the first time in a while, in the green on goal differential with a +4. Apart from the spiraling Anaheim Ducks and the rebuilding San Jose Sharks, the Wings have the lowest goal differential among would-be playoff teams. You can only ask Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin to score so many times.
Once teams figure out that they can win if the shut down Larkin and DeBrincat, how will the Wings adjust? This is the biggest difference between a bubble team and a playoff team. Bubble teams rely on unsustainably high shooting percentages to steal wins. Playoff teams rely on depth to deliver when the stars can’t shake it.
So where can the Wings find some help?
Looking outside
The easiest answer to this question, of course, comes from outside help. TSN’s trade bait list features a bevy of would-be Wings that Detroit can consider. (Well, except for Kiefer Sherwood and Rasmus Andersson, both of whom were traded this week). Some come in the form of short-term help like Michael Bunting (remember him?) and others, like Nazem Kadri, come with some extra term.
The second line of Alex DeBrincat, Andrew Copp, and Patrick Kane is among the top lines in the league in terms of puck possession, goals for, and expected goals. he first line, on the other hand, needs a bit of work. Lucas Raymond took a brief hiatus from top line duties before making his return, but the Wings have struggled to find a suitable line mate for him and Larkin.
Emmitt Finnie did an admirable job at first, but his scoring hasn’t quite kept up with the rest of the line. After an abysmal first half of the season, Marco Kasper looks like he’s slowly returning to form, but is he truly the answer? The top line, more than anything, needs a goal scorer. If Steve Yzerman wants to bring in some extra help, there are quite a few candidates the Wings could look into for a top line role. Among them…
Artemi Panarin?
The Breadman himself is an unrestricted free agent after this year. Patrick Kane’s old bestie was informed by the New York Rangers that they won’t be extending his contract, leaving the Russian on the hunt for a new team. Enter the Red Wings, home of Patrick Kane. Plenty of hockey insiders have already linked Hockeytown to Panarin. The flashy forward has had a fantastic season, putting up 56 points in 50 games with the Rangers.
But, at 34 years old and no extension in sight, should the Wings take a swing? What would a deal look like? A player of Panarin’s caliber would certainly command at first round pick and a high tier prospect at minimum. Would Yzerman want to make a trade if he can’t secure an extension beforehand?
To put it bluntly, Panarin would be an immediate upgrade for this roster. He’s an excellent playmaker and is more than capable of driving a line on his own. With Larkin as his center and Raymond on his wing, Detroit would immediately have one of the deadliest top lines in the league. Here’s a video of Panarin making a fool out of one of the best defensemen in the league, Jaccob Slavin:
One of the biggest (and least talked about) things about Panarin that might give Yzerman pause are his legal troubles. Panarin was the subject of sexual assault allegations last season but settled the matter out of court. The Rangers consider the matter closed, but this may make some general managers think twice about a trade. Then again, we’ve seen Evander Kane get endless second chances over his career, so what do I know?
What about Steven Stamkos?
Stamkos and Detroit seem inexorably linked. Back in 2016, then-general manager Ken Holland made it publicly clear that he wanted to sign Panarin to a massive deal. While that (obviously) didn’t work out, Stamkos keeps showing up on the Red Wings’ radar. This time around, he comes with a little extra term and an $8M cap hit for two seasons.
Stamkos is having a quiet season by his standards, putting up just 21 goals and 33 points in 49 games with the Nashville Predators. While those numbers may not leap off the page, it’s important to note that Stamkos plays on a team with a -25 goal differential and leads his team in goals scored. He’s still got what it takes to produce a 35-40 goal season.
Still, at 36 years of age, how long can the Red Wings rely on him? Would his enticing $8M cap hit produce a bidding war with Cup contenders like Colorado and Dallas? Stamkos seems like the dream candidate for a contender. He’d certainly upgrade the Wings, but Yzerman might conclude that the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze on this front.
A solution from within
There is, of course, a much simpler answer: a solution that’s already been tested and proven. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard played his first nine games with the Red Wings at the start of the season. He only produced one assist in that time and was sent down to the Grand Rapids Griffins as a result. Since then, he’s been nearly unstoppable in the AHL, posting 24 points in 31 games with the Griffins.
The question remains, of course, whether or not MBN is ready for the NHL. I asked Brandon Cooke of the Hockeytown West podcast, the prominent voice of the AHL, and this is what he had to say:
“Why not? Get him back in the lineup and see how he’s grown during this stint. If the Red Wings don’t like what he brings to the table, send him back to Grand Rapids. This is one prospect I can guarantee that will never take a send down negatively and will always put in the work.” - Brandon Cooke, Hockeytown West
Does MBN have what it takes to take on a top line role? It’s hard to say for certain. Moving from the AHL to a top line in the NHL is, to say the least, a substantial transition. What will the Wings do if he can’t pick it up quick enough? Is it time to make a trade then?
Conclusion: Don’t rush, don’t drag
The best thing that the Red Wings can do is stay the course. If there’s a deal to be made, a deal with term is preferable. After all, you don’t want to end up in a Mikko Rantanen situation where the acquired player doesn’t want to sign an extension.
Look, let’s just be realistic here: this team is not built to make a deep run. As it stands, the team certainly can and should make the playoffs. But this year isn’t about contending for the Cup; nor should it be. This should be a year where players experience the playoffs as a team to understand the rigor of the postseason. This isn’t the time to go all in.
It is, however, the time to make a move.
This can’t be like previous seasons where the team stood pat or made moves around the margins. Yzerman has to show his team he trusts them and that he wants to help them succeed. It doesn’t mean they have to swing for the fences, of course. But getting a difference maker or a player with term can signify to the roster that Yzerman believes in them and wants to build for the long run.
But, then again, he could just as easily prove me wrong. Expect the unexpected with the Yzerplan!