I can't believe we need to have this conversation

No, the Red Wings are not trading Dylan Larkin

Every once in a while, you see a take so baffling that it makes you question your own existence.

Before I start getting into specifics, let me first say that I’m open to any idea within reason. You want to trade Lucas Raymond? Okay, explain to me why and what a realistic return would look like. Want to get Matthew Tkachuk no matter the cost? Alright, explain to me the logistics. But this…this was unbelievable. I couldn’t believe what I was reading.

Yesterday, a writer published an article entitled Canucks offseason centre trade target: Dylan Larkin. I’m always curious about what the rest of the league thinks of the Red Wings. Even if I don’t agree with the idea of trading Larkin (a 30-goal, 70-point center who, might I remind you, is the heart and soul of this team), I was curious about the writer’s reasoning.

Boy was I in for a shock.

A prelude

Before I say anything else, let me be the first to say I get it. As a writer, clicks mean cash. There are a few publications like The Hockey Writers and Last Word on Sports that pay per 1,000 views. There’s an incentive to get eyes on the page. Some writers resort to clickbait. Others perform rage bait. This didn’t seem like either. In fact, it comes across as pretty earnest.

I needed to write this article for two reasons: one, to determine if my bias as a fan is clouding my judgment, and two, to break down why this take is so baffling to me. I imagine that the author will read this at some point, so let me first say that this is not a personal attack against you. Nor is it an attack against Canucks Army or any other publication.

Let me explain why this drove me insane:

Why I lost my mind

It wasn’t the idea of trading Larkin that broke me. This quote here sent me into an existential spiral:

“This deal starts with either defenceman Elias Pettersson or Tom Willander; The Red Wings might be more intrigued by Pettersson because they have Mo Seider and Axel Sandin-Pelikka on the right side in their organization and are lacking in young NHL defencemen on the left.

Along with Pettersson (D), the Canucks would have to add a pair of picks, including their 2025 first round pick, which will likely be this year’s 15th overall pick and a young centreman like Aatu Räty.” - Canucks Army

Before I touch on this baffling lowball of an offer, I need to explain why this made me go insane. Every fiber of my being begged with me to not look at the comments. Yet, despite this, I opened Pandora’s Box, and within, I was subject to horror. Several commenters said that the price for Larkin was “too high”. Others suggested that Larkin is, at best, a second-line center. After the third “what an overpay” comment, I had to leave my house to clear my head.

Doubts raced through my mind on my walk. Am I a homer? Has my bias as a fan clouded my judgment? Is Larkin actually a good hockey player, or am I just saying that because he’s my team captain?

At the end of my walk, I realized something: while, yes, I am insane, I’m not wrong. This was, by all accounts, one of the most baffling takes I’d ever seen on the Internet and I needed to say something.

Why this trade offer is ridiculous

Let’s start with some basic stats: with 30 goals and 70 points, Larkin tied for second in scoring on the Red Wings with Alex DeBrincat. He’s one of 23 centers in the league to score at least 30 goals. He was also 23rd in scoring among centers, tied with, funny enough, former Canuck J.T. Miller. Larkin has hit the 30-goal marker three times in his last three seasons. In 576 games, he has 451 points — these numbers become even more impressive when you look at the team he played on in 2019-20.

But, the thing is, that’s just scratching the surface of what Larkin can do. This year, he led the team in Expected Goals. This means that, whenever Larkin was on the ice, he made his teammates better. He also led his team in takeaways, stealing the puck 39 times this season. Advanced stats show high Corsi percentages as well as well above-average Fenwick scores, meaning that Larkin’s work on both ends of the ice help to keep his team in check.

You could even call those numbers…elite.

Obviously, comparing him to Aleksander Barkov is unrealistic. But, still, these numbers clearly paint the picture of one of the top two-way forwards in the league. To suggest that a player of his caliber would go for a mid-first round pick, Tom Willander, and maybe Aatu Raty is laughable.

Let’s break it down bit-by-bit:

Tom Willander: A good defenseman, but…

At 20 years of age, Tom Willander plays top-pairing minutes for Boston University. On paper, the 6’1” Swedish defenseman seems like the exact type of player the Red Wings would target. He’s fast, physical, and doesn’t back down when the stakes are high. In all likelihood, Willander will become a top-four defenseman in the NHL.

There’s just one catch: he shoots right. Now, you might be asking yourself why that matters. After all, Willander looks as close to a legit threat as you can imagine. Typically, NHL defensive pairings put a left-shot and right-shot defenseman on either end. The reason why Willander wouldn’t be a good fit is because the Red Wings already have quite a few right-shot defensemen in the system.

Moritz Seider has clear command over the team’s RD position. Axel Sandin-Pellikka, while not on the roster yet, shoots right as well. Both of these defensemen can and will occupy the team’s top two right pairings. Again, you might ask yourself, why not get someone locked down for the third pairing? While, yes, I think securing that 3RD position is pivotal, I don’t think it’s worth it at the cost of the team’s captain and top-line center.

Aatu Raty: Seriously?

In the 2021 NHL Draft, Aatu Raty looked like he’d be a top-tier talent. Every scouting report indicated that this was a young center with boatloads of potential. This, however, didn’t pan out, as Raty fell to the 52nd pick, snatched up by the New York Islanders. He wound up never playing a game for the Islanders, going to the Canucks in the Bo Horvat trade. Since then, he hasn’t exactly leapt off the page statistically, with just 14 points in 48 NHL games.

Marketing Raty as a “young centreman” is like when NFL players are referred to as “former first rounder”. This would be Raty’s third organization in four years. That sort of movement doesn’t bode well for a prospect. At 22 years of age, I think we know what to expect out of Raty.

This player in particular was baffling to me: I get Willander, but this signals to me that the writer has no real understanding of where the Red Wings are at with the rebuild. Last season, they were just one point away from making the playoffs. While this season didn’t work out as planned, it’s not like the Wings are going to blow up the team. Why would they want Temu Joe Veleno on the roster?

2025 1st round pick: Haha

This one was the craziest piece of the potential trade, though. I understand that, in most mock trades, writers like to throw in first round picks like they’re candy. Heck, when I’m playing NHL on the PS5, I’ll throw in random first rounders to get Cale Makar or whoever I’m targeting. But to suggest that the Red Wings of all teams would be looking at what will surely be the 15th overall pick is hysterical to me.

Do you know how many times this team has picked around 15? Do you realize that we’re picking in the exact same spot as you? Why would we want more of that? What is the logic here? Yes, drafting in the upper first round is great, but there’s a colossal difference in value between the eighth overall pick and the 15th. It just doesn’t make sense to me.

In conclusion: C’mon, man

Everyone’s got their biases. But this article shows a complete misunderstanding of where the Wings are at in the rebuild. They aren’t looking to blow things up: if anything, this will be an offseason of additions. My guess is that the author of the article saw an article about Larkin’s postseason press conference, assumed that he was unhappy in Detroit, then took to the keyboard to churn this article out. It makes sense, too: everyone from Sportsnet to Sports Illustrated tried to construct a narrative about Larkin’s unhappiness with the team’s direction.

This article led me to conclude that most fans don’t really have an understanding of teams outside of their own. I’m guilty of it, too: I’ve made my fair share of leaps in logic and misunderstandings. Maybe this was meant to be clickbait. Maybe it was written to drive me crazy. Either way, I couldn’t let something like this fly.

Hey, you know what? I’ve got a good trade idea, too: we’ll trade you J.T. Compher, William Wallinder, and our 1st overall pick for Quinn Hughes. Sounds fair, right?