Should the Red Wings trade for Erik Karlsson?
Yesterday, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic mentioned murmurs around an Erik Karlsson trade. This is the third year in a row the Pittsburgh Penguins have missed the playoffs. Their core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang are steadily approaching their late thirties. The prospect pool is shallow. By all accounts, a rebuild looks inevitable. Despite this, however, the makeup of their roster prevents them from bottoming out. (Hey, I’ve seen this movie before!)
One of the biggest things holding them back is Erik Karlsson.
The 35-year-old defenseman isn’t the Norris Trophy-winning defenseman he once was, but, if the last three seasons are any indication, he’s still got some gas left in the tank. After all, he’s only three seasons removed from a 101-point campaign. With two years at $10M per year left on his deal, Karlsson could very well find a new place to call home.
Could that place be with the Detroit Red Wings? Let’s talk about it:
First: Who is (or was) Erik Karlsson?
There are few players who, in their prime, forced the game of hockey to adjust to their pace. Patrick Kane, Pavel Datsyuk, Sidney Crosby, and Erik Karlsson are just a few of the rare breed of player capable of this feat. Karlsson is a three-time Norris Trophy winner and easily one of the best defensemen of the 2010s. He’s offensively gifted, and, before his injuries, could shut down even the toughest of lines throughout the league.
This was all in the past, though. As mentioned before, Karlsson isn’t quite the player he once was. Injuries and age have put his career in flux. He’s lost a lot of the speed that proved advantageous in his prime. At this point in his career, Karlsson can still play on the first pairing, but relying on him to be your number one defenseman is a bit of a tall order.
Yet, despite this, he’s still a significant asset to any team. In his 164 games with the Penguins, Karlsson put up 22 goals and 109 points. To put this into perspective, if Karlsson was on the Red Wings during that time frame, he would be the team’s leading scorer on defense. While, yes, his age might scare a few people, it shouldn’t deter Steve Yzerman from considering all his options.
The case for Karlsson
Karlsson isn’t at a point in his career where he can be the number one guy anymore. But, with the right pieces in place, he could be a clear-cut upgrade over half of Detroit’s current defensive makeup. If you asked any NHL general manager throughout the league whether they’d take Karlsson over, say, Jeff Petry, they’re doing it in a heartbeat. Take a look at his offensive output below (thanks to our friends at Benchrates):
While that 0th percentile for defense might set off some alarm bells, it’s important to note that this graph is in relation to Karlsson’s salary. So, yes, his defense was far from ideal last season, but a lot of the scary red numbers are in correlation with his salary cap hit.
The most compelling argument for getting a guy like Karlsson is, ironically enough, his salary cap hit. There are few teams, if any, that would be willing to spend $10.5M a year for two years on a 35-year-old defenseman. If the Penguins hope to move Karlsson, there won’t be many suitors. The proverbial ball is in Steve Yzerman’s court.
If that’s not enough for you, think of the mentorship opportunities. Axel Sandin-Pellikka is on the come up. Simon Edvinsson is already one of the best players in the lineup. Wouldn’t getting one of the best Swedish defensemen in history prove to be a huge benefit for the young Swedes? As he continues to age (and the young guns come into their own), Karlsson can take a backseat and let the kids cook with the lessons they’ve learned.
But is that the best answer for this team?
The case against Karlsson
$10.5M a year.
Yes, the Wings have some salary cap flexibility this next season. But taking on a contract of Karlsson’s magnitude has the potential to hamstring the front office from making other major moves. According to Puckpedia, the Red Wings have $20.5M in salary cap space — and this is before (potentially) re-signing Patrick Kane. If you’re looking to make a big splash in free agency, it’s going to be hard to do that with $10M or less. Say goodbye to names like Aaron Ekblad and Sam Bennett. Take offer sheets off the table. This would be the move for the offseason.
Salary cap headaches aside, who’s to say Karlsson can keep up a 50-point pace at 35+? Sure, he’ll be playing down the lineup in a situation with less pressure, but do you really want to spend $10.5M on a guy who might wind up being your fifth best guy in a year? To top it all off, Karlsson would take up another roster spot - potentially a big roster spot - and keep a prospect from breaking through. There’s a reason there are few suitors for Karlsson on the market.
Do you think the Red Wings should take a swing at Karlsson?