This is why we don't get nice things
I'm afraid I have lost my mind
Before the trade deadline, Red Wings head coach Todd McLellan referred to this time of year as “Christmas for teams”. Last night, the WIngs lost their sixth game in a row and showed us why they got nothing but coal this year. Frustrations have boiled over. The fanbase is growing impatient. This team is not a contender and haven’t looked like one for quite some time.
Of all the versions of this team I’ve seen, this has to be the most inconsistent of them all. One night, they’ll look like they can contend with any team, then they’ll follow it up by getting dismantled by a middle-of-the-pack team. You’ll see Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond light the league on fire one week, then completely disappear the next. It’s impossible to get a read on this team.
Here we are again: the exact same position we were in last year. The Red Wings are now sixth in the division, tied with the Montreal Canadiens. They’re four points out from a wild card spot with a game ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets. With just 18 games left on the schedule, it seems almost inevitable that the team will miss the playoffs again.
But how did we get here? And why does this keep happening?
Let’s go on a little journey together:
What made you think this was a playoff team?
The more I think about it, the more I’ve realized this team was almost doomed from the start. The team’s moves this past offseason should’ve been indicative of that. Here’s a bit of a refresher:
Re-signed Patrick Kane: One year, $6.25M
Re-signed Christian Fischer: One year, $1.125M
Erik Gustafsson: Two years, $2M/year
Jack Campbell: One year, $775K
Tyler Motte: One year, $800K
Vladimir Tarasenko: Two years, $4.75M/year
Cam Talbot: Two years, $2.5M/year
Traded Jake Walman and a 2024 2nd round pick to the San Jose Sharks for Future Considerations
Traded Robby Fabbri and a conditional 2025 4th round pick to the Anaheim Ducks for Gage Alexander
Two moves in particular should stand out in particular: one in hindsight, and the other that should be plastered on every room of Steve Yzerman’s office. Adding depth scoring from a playoff-seasoned veteran like Vladimir Tarasenko was, on paper, a very smart move. In practice, however, it hasn’t turned out quite as planned. While I still believe Tarasenko is a savvy player, his style of play doesn’t mesh well with the Red Wings.
But the most damming move - one that will likely haunt Yzerman for years to come - is one I will address shortly. But, for now, I want you to look at these signings and ask yourself something: do these look like the moves of a team ready to contend for the playoffs? Or do these look like “prove it” deals to give prospects a chance to graduate?
Let’s take a look at this roster piece-by-piece.
The offense: Consistently inconsistent
First, we have to give credit where credit is due: Lucas Raymond is having a career season and deserves to be lauded for it. As of today, he leads the team in scoring with 66 points in 64 games. The last time the Red Wings had a player scoring above a point-per-game was all the way back in 2012-13, when Pavel Datsyuk led with 49 points in 47 games. What Raymond is doing is exceptional.
To be fair, many others on the roster have stepped it up after the firing of Derek Lalonde, as well. Alex DeBrincat has 16 goals since Lalonde was fired on December 26th. Marco Kasper has shown massive improvement by tripling his career totals from 8 to 24 points in that timeframe, as well.
These things are all good and fun, but this team is lacking in depth and consistency across the board. Patrick Kane, the fourth-highest scoring forward on the roster, has 15 goals and 40 points. After Kane comes Vladimir Tarasenko, with just eight goals and 25 points in 63 games. The Red Wings are a team with a high-powered top line and a complete mess after that. They have a -25 goal differential — the seventh-worst in the league.
Their offensive metrics paint a much clearer picture. For the uninitiated, Goals Above Expected is a metric that gauges the likelihood a player will score a goal while on the ice. This number is put against the average NHL shooting metrics — so anything above 0.0 means the player is scoring at an above-average rate in relation to the quality of their shots. Can you guess how many forwards on the roster have above 0.0 goals above expected?
Four.
For reference, the Tampa Bay Lightning have seven forwards above a 0.0. Yes, the Lightning are a better team on paper and in practice. But anyone that thought the Wings could make it to the playoffs only needs to look at these numbers to realize how far they have to go.
The team’s inconsistent offense is just scratching the surface.
The defense: What a mess
Nearly $12.5M of the team’s salary is dedicated to Ben Chiarot, Justin Holl, Jeff Petry, and Erik Gustafsson — ages 33, 33, 37, and 32, respectively. Three of these four players are analytic black holes, the exception being Gustafsson, who is more of a low-event, play-stopping style of defenseman. Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson are fighting for their lives out there. When a third of your defensive corps has to work overtime to make up for the mistakes of the other two thirds, you’re in trouble.
The worst part of it all is that it’s affecting the younger talent, as well. Moritz Seider is playing the toughest minutes in the NHL for the second year in a row. Simon Edvinsson and Albert Johansson had to play a four minute, thirty second shift — among one of the longest shifts in NHL history. While, yes, this is indicative of the team’s confidence in their youth, this level of wear and tear can take a toll on a player’s confidence and body in the long run. Do we really want to run the tread off Seider’s tires before he’s even seen his first playoff game?
We haven’t even mentioned the elephant in the room yet:
Yes, it’s time to talk about it
You know what would help the Red Wings? An analytically solid defenseman on flexible term that’s been proven to mesh well with Moritz Seider. What if I told you the team had that player last year? What if I told you that he was traded along with a 2024 2nd round pick for nothing in return? What if - and bear with me here - that same defenseman was traded again and actually acquired a 1st round pick in return? Would you lose your mind? I know I certainly have.
Jake Walman is not the savior of this team. But at least he was a blueliner with a pulse. Can you honestly tell me he wouldn’t do a better job than Petry or Holl or Chiarot? Even if you believe this team is better off without Walman, you can’t deny that this trade was far and beyond the worst move in Yzerman’s career. I have to hand it to Sharks general manager Mike Grier: turning future considerations into a 1st and 2nd round pick is incredible work.
Goaltending: Kicking the can down the road
In Steve Yzerman’s tenure as general manager, the team has seen Jonathan Bernier, James Reimer, Alex Nedeljkovic, Thomas Greiss, James Reimer, Alex Lyon, Cam Talbot, and, now, apparently, Petr Mrazek start for the team. Unless you have a steady goaltender like Andrei Vasilevskiy or Connor Hellebuyck, it’s normal for teams to try a few different options. Eight goaltenders have started at least 20 games during Yzerman’s tenure for the Red Wings, and none have seemed to be a good long-term fit.
This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though: after all, Sebastian Cossa and Trey Augustine are developing in the minor leagues and both look like the real deal. But it’l take some time before either of them see consistent ice time. I understand Yzerman’s mindset: if the prospects aren’t ready, find a stopgap. But I’m not so sure a Mrazek/Talbot tandem is the answer.
This season, Mrazek has a .890 save percentage. He was so bad he got shipped out of Chicago, the second-worst team in the NHL. To make matters worse, he has another year left on his deal. Sure, they could go the way of Husso and ship him off to a rebuilder. But why bother getting a goaltender statistically worse than both your starter and backup?
In short, the Wings are kicking the can down the road with goaltending until one of Cossa or Augustine are ready. This isn’t the worst plan. But it’s going to be frustrating to watch from the outside.
Give me a reason they should’ve gone all in
No, seriously.
In what world does this roster look ready for the playoffs? Almost every single team in the Atlantic made improvements. The Florida Panthers added Brad Marchand and Seth Jones. Tampa reunited with Yanni Gourde and scored Oliver Bjorkstrand, one of the best territorial players in the league. The Toronto Maple Leafs secured depth on both ends of the ice. Even the Ottawa Senators took a major step, acquiring Dylan Cozens from the Sabres in a huge trade.
Can you name a single player with term the Wings could have acquired without mortgaging high-round picks and prospects? It’s clear the Sabres wanted a top-six center in return for Cozens. The only player that would even fit that bill is Dylan Larkin, and trading him is absolutely out of the question. Mikko Rantanen went for two first round picks and a top-six forward.
If not now, then when?
Well, that entirely depends on when the team can prove they’re worth the gamble. During his first practice with the team, head coach Todd McLellan told them to “play f-ing hockey”. At first, it seemed to work. The team went on not one, but two seven-game winning streaks. Before McLellan was hired, the team was sitting at a 13-17-4 record. Since McLellan was hired, they’ve had a turnaround, securing 36 points with a 17-11-2 record.
Did the change come too late? Or has the team cooled off from their hot streak? Here’s what McLellan had to say before the trade deadline last Friday:
"I know [Yzerman] believes in this group and that he wants to do whatever he can to help this group. But the players that put the jerseys on have to get the job done.” - Todd McLellan during a press conference.
Destiny is in the team’s hands. If they want Yzerman and the front office to invest, they need to prove they’re worth the price. This last month of play gave zero indication that they’re ready to contend for the playoffs. But is that the team’s fault, or is it Yzerman’s for building this roster?
Shared blame on both sides
Ultimately, the team is in the position they’re in for two reasons: the poor free agency signings, and the lack of consistency on the ice. The decisions made by the pro scouting department should raise colossal red flags for both fans and front office alike. Their perception of play doesn’t remotely match the reality. Yzerman has shown he’s excellent at drafting, but the decisions made by his front office with these pro deals are nothing short of concerning.
But this begs a bigger question: are these stopgap-style moves indicative of a failure of the scouts, or a recognition of how far this team has yet to go? Personally, I think you’ve got to give a little to get a little. You can’t expect a team to make those big improvements without giving them the opportunity. Guys like Petry and Holl aren’t the answer. The Alex DeBrincat trade, while a risk, showed that Yzerman has put faith in the forward group and wants to get them some help.
Here’s to hoping he makes a similar decision on the defense.