Why Andrew Copp will bounce back
Comeback season is upon us.
We’re seeing it with the Lions, who went from a laughing stock to one of the top teams in the league. We’re seeing it with Carter Mazur, who has a comeback on his mind after suffering a season-ending injury last season. In less exciting news, I’m also having a comeback season — a comeback to Detroit for opening night, that is! (Come say hi! I’ll be the guy in the Red Wings jersey).
The biggest comeback candidate, though, comes in the form of Ann Arbor native Andrew Copp.
Copp is a conundrum. There’s no real consensus on him. Some fans think he holds the worst contract on the team, while others believe he’s a stabilizing presence at center. No matter where you land, though, one thing is certain: he’s long overdue for a big year.
That’s why I think Copp’s ready to bounce back.
First: This isn’t a Copp out
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not the biggest fan of Copp’s contract. At $5.625M per year until 2027, Copp has yet to score more than 42 points post-extension. Other forwards in his price range include Zach Hyman and Jonathan Marchessault, both of whom consistently land around the 60-80 point mark.
While, yes, the salary cap is going up, a 42 point season from your de facto second line center is underwhelming at best and downright disappointing at worst.
But offense has never been Copp’s weapon of choice.
Defense does it
Defensive reliability is what earned Copp his contract. In the 2023-24 season, no other player on the Red Wings started in the defensive end more than Copp. Former head coach Derek Lalonde viewed him as the most reliable forward in his own zone. With McLellan, Copp experienced a resurgence. At the start of the season, Copp put up just 14 points in 35 games, or .4 points-per-game. Once McLellan entered the fray, Copp was on pace for a 35-point campaign, with 21 points coming in the remaining 47 games of the season.
While those offensive numbers might not appear impressive, it’s important to note that, again, offense isn’t Copp’s specialty.
Think of him like Danny DeKeyser. DDK was never the type of defenseman you’d rely on to score big goals or generate offense. He was a stabilizing presence on the back end, capable of stifling even Connor McDavid himself. While his offensive numbers aren’t remotely close to what his contract should guarantee, his defensive attributes are what puts him over the top.
The Wings suffered without Copp
Last season, the Wings lost Copp in late February to a pectoral injury. Before then, the Todd McLellan-led Wings held a 15-5-2 record. After losing Copp, however, they went 11-13-4, missing the playoffs for the ninth consecutive year.
Copp was the second-best faceoff man on the roster, second behind Dylan Larkin with a 50.7% success rate. Despite the early end to his season, Copp finished the season fifth in takeaways per 60 minutes, eighth in on-ice goals percentage, and first among all forwards in PDO (shooting % + save %).
“We missed him for faceoffs, we missed him for defensive zone coverage, we missed him a little bit for poise and just to calm things down,” McLellan said during his end-of-season press conference.
PK power
Copp’s most dominant aspect, however, came from the penalty kill. Once McLellan took hold, the team sported a 73.3% penalty kill percentage with Copp in the lineup. After his injury, that number fell to 70.1% — the worst in the league. Now, to be fair, a 73.3% penalty kill is abysmal. But, to lose over 3 percentage points without a single forward is alarming.
Benchrates places Copp in the 84th percentile of penalty killers in the NHL. He’s among the best in the league at stifling the extra scorer.
Why Copp is due for a bounce back
Last season’s injury-shortened campaign was his statistical worst with the Wings. In 56 games, he managed just 10 goals and 23 points. Part of this is due to a coaching change. Another is due to his injury. But, ultimately, a large part is Copp’s role with the Wings. He’s been asked to punch above his weight more times than he’d like, playing tougher minutes with more offensive-minded forwards.
This has led to a dip in their production as well as a few bad marks on his defensive analytics. When Copp has to cover for the defensive mishaps of someone like, say, Patrick Kane, he’s stretched to his limit defensively. Consequently, when Kane has to rely on Copp at center, he misses out on key points that might otherwise tip the scales.
Fortunately, a solution has manifested itself within the organization.
No pressure
Marco Kasper, under Derek Lalonde, struggled to make an impact at the NHL level. The moment McLellan took over, Kasper exploded. He ended the season on a 55-point pace since January, scoring 30 of his 37 points last season in that timeframe. Kasper has shown he’s got what it takes to set the stage on the second line.
This, of course, begs the Andrew Copp question: where does our defensive center play?
Daily Faceoff currently has J.T. Compher headlining the third line, flanked by Michael Rasmussen and newcomer Mason Appleton. Whether that becomes the reality or not remains to be seen. With that said, the lineup projection has Copp handling fourth line duties between Elmer Soderblom and Jonatan Berggren.
It’s highly unlikely that the final lineup looks like this, but the idea of Copp on a bottom-six role is enticing, contract notwithstanding. Put all salary figures aside and you have a solid defensive forward capable of stabilizing a lineup in desperate need of some extra defense.
On a bottom pairing, Copp can play to his strengths in a checking role. Kasper’s offensive gifts give Kane and Alex DeBrincat an extra weapon. Deploying Copp in a bottom-six role takes the offensive pressure off his shoulders, giving him a chance to relax and assume a more commanding role on defensive shifts.
It will ultimately come down to two things: Copp’s deployment and his performance post-injury. But, with that said, all signs point to a Copp comeback.
Something about your offensive numbers for Copp seems off? You’ve got him for 20 something points in the final 40 something games, but that’s not right by the hard numbers OR by the pace as far as I can tell?